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The Taiwan Strait: crucial waterway and military flashpoint
The Taiwan Strait: crucial waterway and military flashpoint
By Matthew WALSH
Beijing (AFP) Dec 10, 2024

Taiwan accused China on Tuesday of holding its biggest maritime mobilisation around the island in years, though Beijing has stayed tight-lipped over its latest show of force.

Here, AFP looks at the Taiwan Strait, a critical waterway and growing military flashpoint:

- Where is the Taiwan Strait? -

The strait separates the eastern Chinese province of Fujian from the main island of Taiwan, home to around 23 million people.

At its narrowest point, just 130 kilometres (about 80 miles) of windswept water separates the two major landmasses, and several outlying Taiwanese islands -- including Kinmen and Matsu -- lie just a few kilometres from the Chinese coastline.

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since Mao Zedong's communist army won a civil war and sent the opposition nationalist forces fleeing across the strait in 1949.

Beijing has maintained ever since that the island is part of its territory, and has not ruled out using force to bring it under control.

- Why is it important? -

The strait is a critical artery for global shipping through which a huge volume of trade passes every day.

Around $2.45 trillion of goods -- more than a fifth of global maritime trade -- transited the strait in 2022, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

Taiwan plays an outsized role in the global economy thanks to producing over 90 percent of the world's most advanced computing chips, used in everything from smartphones to cutting-edge military equipment.

Analysts say a Chinese invasion would deal a catastrophic blow to these supply chains.

More minor disruptions, such as a blockade of the island, would cause costly shipping cancellations and diversions that would impact worldwide consumers.

"In the event of a long conflict over Taiwan, financial markets would tank, trade would shrivel, and supply chains would freeze, plunging the global economy into a tailspin," Robert A. Manning, a China expert at Washington's Stimson Center, wrote this year.

A report by the Rhodium Group estimated that a blockade of the island could cost firms dependent on Taiwan's chips $1.6 trillion in revenue annually.

An invasion would also endanger Taiwan's way of life, embodied by its democratic freedoms and boisterous elections.

It would also risk a wider conflict because the United States, while not recognising Taiwan diplomatically, has an agreement to help the island defend itself.

- What do we know about the drills? -

Unlike previous exercises, Beijing has not announced any drills.

But a senior Taiwanese security official told AFP on Tuesday that "nearly 90" Chinese naval and coast guard ships were currently in waters along the so-called first island chain, which includes Japan's Okinawa, Taiwan and the Philippines.

Taiwan's defence ministry said earlier it had also detected 47 Chinese aircraft near the island in the 24 hours to 6:00 am (2200 Monday GMT), the highest number since October.

China's foreign ministry declined to answer questions about the drills on Tuesday, referring reporters to the "competent authorities".

But ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a regular press conference that Beijing would "resolutely defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity".

The developments came after Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te visited the US last week, a visit strongly criticised by Beijing.

- Has this happened before? -

China has ramped up pressure on Taiwan in recent years and has staged four large-scale military exercises around the island since 2022.

In October, Chinese forces deployed fighter jets, bombers and warships in areas to the north, south and east of Taiwan, and simulated a rocket strike in drills called "Joint Sword-2024B".

The manoeuvres came after Lai gave a speech on Taiwan's national day that Beijing viewed as a provocative move towards independence.

Beijing launched other drills -- "Joint Sword-2024A" -- in May following Lai's inauguration, and encircled Taiwan in April last year after his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen met with then US Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

But a spokesperson for Taipei's defence ministry has said the scale of the maritime forces in the current operation "exceeds the four drills since 2022".

Several major crises flared across the strait in preceding decades, most recently in 1995-6, when China conducted missile tests around Taiwan.

China's shows of force against Taiwan
Beijing (AFP) Dec 10, 2024 - Taiwan has said China is carrying out huge maritime drills around its main island in some of Beijing's biggest-ever military exercises.

AFP takes a look at China's increasing efforts at military intimidation around Taiwan in recent years:

- Regular incursions -

Relations between the governments of China and Taiwan have ebbed and flowed over the decades.

Tensions exploded in 1995 when China began test-firing missiles in the waters around Taiwan to protest against a visit by Taiwanese president Lee Teng-hui to his alma mater in the United States.

But China has notably ramped up military manoeuvres since the 2016 election of former president Tsai Ing-wen, who considers the island "already independent", including with warplane flights into Taiwan's so-called Air Defence Identification Zone.

Taipei said in April last year it had detected the long-range TB-001 Chinese combat drone and 37 other Chinese aircraft circling Taiwan.

That was the first time Taiwan's defence ministry had reported a Chinese military aircraft circling the island from one end of the Taiwan Strait's median line, which China does not recognise, to the other, local media said.

Beijing now deploys planes and naval vessels around Taiwan on a near-daily basis.

China has also increasingly conducted major exercises around the island -- usually in response to alleged "provocations" by Taipei.

Former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island in August 2022 triggered Beijing's largest-ever war games.

The drills ran for at least five days and involved what Beijing called a "conventional missile firepower assault" in waters to the east of Taiwan.

They were followed by more drills that month after another delegation of US lawmakers visited Taipei.

China went on to deploy 71 warplanes in military exercises around Christmas that year, which the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) said were a "strike drill" responding to unspecified "provocations" and "collusion" between the United States and Taiwan.

- Simulated strikes -

Cross-strait tensions spiked again in April 2023, when China held three days of military drills after a meeting between Tsai and Pelosi's successor Kevin McCarthy.

The war games saw Beijing simulate targeted strikes on Taiwan and encirclement of the island, including "sealing" it off.

Chinese state media reported dozens of planes had practised an "aerial blockade".

One of China's two aircraft carriers, the Shandong, also participated in the exercises.

The drills were followed by a rocket launch from northwest China that Taiwan authorities said had sent debris falling into the sea north of the island.

That August, a stopover in the United States by then vice president Lai drew Beijing's ire, with the PLA holding new war games intended to serve as a "stern warning to the collusion of 'Taiwan independence separatists' with foreign elements".

Lai was then elected president this January in a contest overshadowed by fears of military threats from Beijing.

Following his inauguration in May, China announced two days of drills as a "strong punishment for the separatist acts of 'Taiwan independence' forces".

And in October it was a National Day speech by Lai in which he vowed to "resist annexation" that angered Beijing, which sent fighter jets and warships around the island in another round of its "Joint Sword 2024" exercises.

- 'Wrong signals' -

Beijing opposes any official contact between Taiwan and other countries.

And a tour by Lai of a number of Pacific islands -- some part of the United States -- has sparked outrage from Beijing, which resents any suggestion the Taiwan leader is a legitimate head of state.

China's foreign ministry last month warned Washington to "stop sending wrong signals" over Taiwan after Republican US House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke with Lai in a call during his overseas trip.

A day after his call with Johnson, Lai said he was "confident" Taiwan would "continue to deepen cooperation" with the incoming Donald Trump administration.

The United States does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan but has an arrangement to provide the island with the means to defend itself.

China vowed Monday to "firmly defend" its sovereignty and insisted Taiwan was an "inalienable" part of its territory.

On Tuesday, a Taiwan security official told AFP that nearly 90 Chinese naval and coast guard ships were currently in waters of the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and South China Sea -- exceeding Beijing's maritime response to Pelosi's visit in 2022.

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