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Taiwan's progressive image takes hit after divisive polls
By Amber WANG
Taipei (AFP) Nov 25, 2018

Five takeaways from Taiwan's vote results
Taipei (AFP) Nov 25 - A massive defeat for Taiwan's ruling party in mid-term polls Saturday was seen as an indictment of President Tsai Ing-wen and called into question her approach to China, as well as unpopular domestic reforms.

- Why are voters angry? -

Cuts to pensions and a reduction in public holidays have compounded frustrations over a stagnant economy where salaries have not kept up with the rise in cost of living.

Analysts agree domestic issues were the main reason behind voters' punishment of Tsai's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which saw its key seats more than halved while the Beijing-friendly opposition Kuomintang more than doubled their share.

However, concern that business is being dented by deteriorating relations with Beijing also played a part, including a dramatic drop in tourists from China since Tsai took office in 2016.

Beijing has sought to punish Tsai and her pro-independence leaning party by ramping up military drills, poaching allies and successfully persuading international businesses including airlines to list the island as part of China on their websites.

- What next for China-Taiwan relations? -

With pressure from Beijing at play in the vote result, analysts say Tsai will need to recalibrate her policy.

But while voters want assurances of stability and economic prosperity, they will not want Taiwan to move too close to Beijing -- the previous KMT government was ousted after widespread public concerns over its rapprochement with China.

"Striking a balance between productive economic relations with China while maintaining a pro-Taiwan stance in terms of identity and status, is elusive," said analyst Jonathan Sullivan of Nottingham University.

Tsai also needs to appease pro-independence factions in her own party who dislike her official stance which seeks to maintain the cross-strait "status quo".

- How will China respond? -

Beijing said the vote results showed "the strong will of the public in Taiwan in sharing the benefits of the peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait" in quotes attributed to Ma Xiaoguang, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, by state news agency Xinhua.

Analysts believe Beijing may see the result as proof of the success of its carrot-and-stick approach, which has offered economic incentives to Taiwanese entrepreneurs and businesses and perks to cities and counties that support the notion Taiwan is part of "one China".

Huang Kwei-bo, political analyst at National Chengchi University, said China would likely see the KMT triumph "as its propaganda tactics being very effective", and predicted Chinese sabre-rattling could ease.

- Dirty tricks campaign? -

Accusations of Beijing meddling dominated Tsai and the DPP's pre-election campaigning as they accused China of a "fake news" onslaught, which Beijing has denied.

Taiwan's Investigation Bureau is probing Chinese influence on the elections through campaign funding of candidates.

"Chinese influence in Taiwanese elections reached a new level of intrusiveness," said Nottingham's Sullivan, adding that interference would be a factor to watch going into the 2020 leadership vote.

- What about the US? -

Relations with the United States, Taiwan's most powerful unofficial ally and major arms supplier, have warmed under Tsai, another sore point for Beijing.

Analysts said the US would not be worried about the outcome of the elections, as issues of reunification or independence had not played a major role.

However, National Chengchi University's Huang said Washington may flag the issue of possible China interference in future after the US-based chairman of America's de facto embassy in Taiwan warned of "attempts by external powers" to influence debate and spread false information.

LGBT activists in Taiwan fear their newly won right to marriage equality is under threat, while the president is battling for her political future after a wide-ranging vote that saw the island swing towards conservatism.

Rival referendums on same-sex unions saw "pro-family" groups defeat pro-gay campaigners in what Amnesty International called a "bitter blow and a step backwards for human rights in Taiwan".

The referendums ran alongside local elections in which the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered a massive loss in city and county seats, prompting President Tsai Ing-wen to resign as party leader and sparking questions over whether she will be able to run for re-election in 2020.

The Beijing-friendly main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) made gains in the face of China's increasing pressure on the island, which it sees as part of its territory to be reunified.

Tsai has promoted Taiwan as a beacon of democracy in the region since she took office, pitching it as a counterpoint to China's authoritarianism.

Rights activists worldwide also lauded Taiwan after its top court voted to legalise gay marriage last year, the first place in Asia to do so, with the change due to be implemented next year.

But analysts said Saturday's vote showed mainstream sentiment was still uncomfortable with such reforms.

"Taiwan is a conservative society and not quite ready for the progressive label it's been given in some quarters," said Jonathan Sullivan, director of China programmes at Nottingham University.

Pro-gay marriage campaigners say they fear the new laws will now be weakened as the government faces conservative opposition.

"The Taiwanese government needs to step up and take all necessary measures to deliver equality and dignity for all, regardless of who people love," said Amnesty, urging authorities not to use the referendum as an "excuse" to undermine rights.

- 'Protest vote' -

Observers said the DPP's shock defeat in local polls was an indictment of policies they felt had not helped ordinary people.

Although GDP is rising in Taiwan, voters say they are not seeing the benefits and many have been incensed by cuts to pensions and public holidays.

Some traditional DPP supporters had said ahead of the elections that they would punish the party as they felt tensions with China were damaging their businesses.

The DPP leans towards independence and Beijing has upped military and diplomatic pressure since Tsai took office, unilaterally cutting all official relations.

Tsai and the DPP repeatedly accused China of a "fake news" campaign ahead of the vote, which Beijing denied, and authorities are probing Chinese influence through campaign funding of candidates.

Kerry Brown, professor of Chinese Studies at King's College London, framed the result as a protest vote.

"This is not a wholehearted endorsement of anyone else -- just a sign of how much like other countries Taiwan now is -- divided, very frustrated and looking for chances to protest," he told AFP.

Observers agreed Tsai's re-election prospects had been severely weakened although some said she still had a chance to run, in the absence of an obvious successor.

Tsai had described the vote as a chance for Taiwan to stand up to China, while the KMT pitched it as a no-confidence test.

Analysts said that Taiwan's sense of separateness from China was ingrained, but that voters wanted a cross-strait relationship that did not damage the island economically, a balance that successive governments have found difficult to strike.

"(The electorate) remain attached to Taiwan's de facto independence and democracy," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, professor of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University.

"They want to see their purchasing power increase and their government to show more competence."

Taiwan leader's 'separatist stance' cost election: Chinese media
Beijing (AFP) Nov 26, 2018 - Chinese state-run media on Monday blamed the electoral defeat of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's party on her "separatist stance", saying it must make an "about-face" on ties with the mainland.

Tsai resigned as head of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) after it was dealt a massive loss in city and county seats during Saturday's wide-ranging vote in self-ruled and democratic Taiwan.

The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), which oversaw an unprecedented thaw with Beijing before Tsai took office in 2016, made gains in the face of China's increasing pressure on the island, which it considers as part of its territory to be reunified.

The state-run China Daily said Taiwan's people are unhappy the government has not pulled the island out of quasi-economic stagnation and that its policies "have ignored the interests of many groups".

"The Tsai administration's secessionist stance has not only soured its crucial relations with the Chinese mainland, but also made it unpopular with people on both sides of the straits," the daily said in an editorial.

"The election shows that the Tsai administration has betrayed Taiwan's interests and become a troublemaker whose actions have drifted farther away from the practical needs of the Taiwan people and the historical truth of the consensus there is only one China."

Cross-Strait communication and cooperation between local governments are now expected to strengthen following the election, it added.

The DPP is traditionally pro-independence and Tsai has refused to acknowledge Beijing's stance that Taiwan is part of "one China", unlike her KMT predecessor Ma Ying-jeou.

Beijing has sought to punish Tsai and the DPP by ramping up military drills, poaching allies and successfully persuading international businesses, including airlines, to list the island as part of China on their websites.

"Radical thinking and paranoia that permeates the green camp have misguided the DPP," the nationalistic Global Times said in an editorial.

"The party needs to reflect on this failure and make an about-face on its stance... (on) cross-Strait ties."


Related Links
Taiwan News at SinoDaily.com


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TAIWAN NEWS
Anti-gay marriage groups win Taiwan referendum battle
Taipei (AFP) Nov 24, 2018
Voters in Taiwan backed anti-gay marriage referendums Saturday in what LGBT activists said was a major blow to the island's reputation as a rights trailblazer. The result came at the end of a dramatic evening which saw Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen resign as leader of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) after it suffered major defeats in key mid-term polls, a significant blow to her prospects for re-election in 2020. The Beijing-friendly main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) made gains in ... read more

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