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Opposition's Ma Wins Taiwan Presidential Landslide; Extends Hand To China

Taiwan's presidential poll, bringing the more China-friendly candidate to power, is the best Beijing's leaders could have hoped for, but they must change tack if they want a genuine breakthrough, analysts said Sunday. The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party's Ma Ying-jeou, the son of a refugee from the mainland, won a landslide victory in Saturday's election on a promise to improve relations with China. "The election outcome certainly is the best-case scenario for Beijing," said Drew Thompson, director of China Studies at the Nixon Center in Washington.

"The challenge for Beijing going forward will be to find a suitable approach to the new leadership in Taiwan," he said. China and Taiwan have been governed separately since the end of a civil war in 1949, but Beijing still claims the island as part of its territory, threatening to use force to bring about reunification if need be. However, reunification has seemed an ever more distant dream during the past eight years when Taiwan has been led by the independence-minded Chen Shui-bian, the island's first non-KMT president.

With the KMT back in the driving seat, Beijing may be hoping for a new beginning, but forward momentum does not come easy in the delicate and intensely emotional diplomatic play across the Taiwan Strait. In the post-election situation, China's key priority should be to create an atmosphere where the current peaceful status quo can be solidified, without antagonising Taiwanese concerned about losing independence, analysts argued. "Beijing will have to be prepared to compromise and soften its tone and make palatable proposals, while recognising the political realities that Taiwan politicians must operate in," said Thompson.

China is likely to welcome the fact that not only did its preferred candidate win, but two controversial referendums about seeking United Nations membership for Taiwan also failed, with only about 35 percent of voters casting their ballot, far below the required 50 percent. The referendums, held alongside the presidential election, were seen as potentially explosive, especially because one of them suggested applying under the name of Taiwan, signalling a separate identity from China. Although China could hardly have asked for more from Taiwan's voters, the tone on the mainland remained cautious on Sunday, and no official reaction was immediately available. Even China's comparatively free-wheeling academic community appeared reluctant to stick its neck out.

"Ma Ying-jeou has emphasised all along that he will proceed from the basic interests of the people and relax tension," said Wu Nengyuan, a Taiwan expert at the Academy of Social Sciences in Fujian, the province opposite Taiwan. "No doubt, we'll see even better development of trade, travel and transportation. That's what the Taiwan people want, and that's what the mainland wishes to see, too," he said.

by Staff Writers
Taipei (AFP) March 23, 2008
Taiwan's president-elect Ma Ying-jeou extended his hand Sunday to big neighbour China, vowing to help pave the way for a century of mutual peace and prosperity in the region.

Buoyed by a landslide election victory on Saturday, Ma said he wanted a "non-denial" agreement that would allow Taiwan and China -- which claims sovereignty over the island -- to exist side by side.

He promised to work for warmer relations, pressing for closer trade ties, direct air and tourism links and a peace treaty that would end decades of hostilities since Taiwan split from the mainland in 1949.

Ma appealed for public trust and urged voters to re-elect him four years from now, saying: "If you give me eight years, I will lay the foundation for a century of peace and prosperity."

The Harvard-educated opposition Kuomintang candidate won 58 percent of the vote Saturday, trouncing his ruling party challenger Frank Hsieh by almost 17 points and earning the congratulations of US President George W. Bush.

Ma said he backed a 1992 consensus between Beijing and Taipei, under which both accepted the formula of "One China" but agreed to interpret it in their own way.

He said the old policy of each side denying the other's right to exist was in the past, but that mutual recognition was also "out of the question."

Mutual non-denial was the middle road, Ma said.

"We will not deny their existence but we cannot recognise their sovereignty" over Taiwan, he said.

China has threatened an invasion if the US-allied island declares independence.

By returning to the 1992 consensus, Ma said, "We can move ahead to other urgent, less intractable issues."

"We want to make sure we are not negotiating Taiwan's future... Taiwan's identity has to be respected. We will negotiate with each other on an equal footing."

However Ma -- who formally takes office on May 20 -- said there were "no plans" to visit China.

"We want to work on substantive issues. If we are able to do that, we will consider whether a high-level visit is required."

The vote had been closely watched by Beijing and Washington for signs of a new approach after eight years of recurring tensions under outgoing President Chen Shui-bian.

Ma made improving ties with Beijing a cornerstone of his platform for his KMT party, and that -- along with concern over the stuttering economy -- swept him to victory.

Bush, in a written message, said his election offered a fresh chance for bilateral relations with the mainland.

"I believe the election provides a fresh opportunity for both sides (China and Taiwan) to reach out and engage one another in peacefully resolving their differences," he added.

Ma said he wanted to negotiate on three key issues with China: an economic cooperation agreement; a peace accord including military confidence-building measures to avoid a flashpoint incident; and Taiwan's diplomatic status on the world stage, where it has been squeezed by Beijing.

Analysts expect Taiwan and China will soon reopen contacts on tourism and trade through two semi-official bodies.

In a wide-ranging news conference here, Ma also reiterated his support for autonomy for Tibet in the wake of China's military crackdown, saying Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama would be "more than welcome" to visit Taiwan.

"I think he is a moderate person, very persuasive. That is why I support his idea for autonomy for Tibet," he said. China has refused to talk to the Dalai Lama and accuses his "clique" of orchestrating unrest there.

Ma's landslide, coupled with the KMT's crushing defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party in January's parliamentary elections, restores his party to political dominance in Taiwan, eight years after Chen ended its half-century grip on power.

His beaten rival Hsieh, meanwhile, kept a low profile. He was whisked away from his home in the morning amid suggestions he was about to resign over the election debacle.

related report
Taiwan-China set to resume dialogue after Ma victory: experts
Taiwan's president-elect Ma Ying-jeou will likely have little problem kick-starting a promised new era in relations with China, but analysts cautioned Sunday against expecting too much too soon.

Speaking on the morning after his landslide election win, Ma said he wanted a "mutual non-denial" agreement on peaceful co-existence with Beijing, and vowed to help lay the groundwork for a century of peace and prosperity.

Along with China, the United States had also been closely monitoring the election, hoping it would usher in better ties after eight years of friction under outgoing pro-independence leader Chen Shui-bian.

Analysts expect Beijing and Taipei will now reopen talks on tourism and direct air links, but said the more sensitive political issues would be put aside for a while.

"Taiwan and China will resume dialogue soon on the model of the '1992 consensus' to discuss practical issues without having to touching on sovereignty issues," said Cao Jingxing, a political analyst at China's Tsinghua University.

China still claims sovereignty over Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949 after a civil war, and has threatened to invade the self-ruled island if it declares independence.

Under the 1992 consensus, Beijing and Taipei accepted the formula of 'one China' but agreed to interpret it in their own way, leading to Taiwan's current status of de facto but undeclared nationhood.

In 1993, they opened their first semi-official talks in Singapore but they were suspended a few years later.

Chang Wu-yue, of the Tamkang University Institute of China Research, predicted an "immediate reopening" of talks between Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation and China's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait.

The two semi-official bodies are the main points of contact between the two sides, which do not have government relations.

However, he was cautious about the possibility of a quick breakthrough.

"Whether any consensus on key issues can be achieved remains to be seen," he told AFP.

For Soochow University professor Liu Bih-rong, the election "shows that the Taiwanese people have given the KMT the mandate to open direct links and push for the one common market with China," referring to Ma's Kuomintang party.

But Chang Lin-cheng, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, urged Ma to be cautious in pushing for political dialogue.

"The election shows 41 percent of the voters still support the Democratic Progressive Party, which stresses Taiwan's identity, or support independence," she said.

"Consensus has to be reached before Ma moves to talk with Beijing on a peace treaty or makes efforts to break the island's diplomatic isolation."

Ma, acknowledging sovereignty as "the most intractable issue across the Taiwan Strait," said he wanted a middle road of mutual non-denial under which "we will not deny their existence but we cannot recognise their sovereignty" over Taiwan.

US President George W. Bush welcomed Ma's victory as a "fresh opportunity" for Taipei and China to peacefully resolve their differences.

At the same time, Bush urged China and Taiwan to refrain from "unilateral" steps that would increase tensions -- code for Taipei not to move toward independence.

Chen's policies -- notably his decision to hold a referendum alongside the election on whether the island should seek United Nations membership under the name Taiwan -- angered both Beijing and Washington.

Analysts said they also expected an improvement in Taiwan-US ties when Ma takes office on May 20.

Washington will certainly welcome more predictability, said Clayton Dube, the associate director of the US-China Institute at the University of Southern California.

The US government "is quite frustrated with Taiwan's current leadership. That has made things difficult," he said.

Under Ma, he predicted, "the American government will not feel blind-sided" as it had been under Chen.

"If the government in Taiwan is clear in its aims and predictable in its intentions and actions, that will make it much easier for the US government in dealing with China."

A European diplomat, speaking under cover of anonymity, was however more sceptical.

"The idea of Ma being equi-distant between the United States and China will not please Washington, which has been Taiwan's closest ally," the Taipei-based diplomat cautioned.

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Fortified Taiwan island seeks gateway to China
Kinmen, Taiwan (AFP) March 18, 2008
Taiwan's fortified island of Kinmen has lain for decades on the frontline against China, but now the landmines are being dug up as Taipei seeks to turn the page in relations with Beijing.







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