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Americans Expect Stronger China

China is currently close to supplanting Mexico as the United States' second-largest trading partner, according to government census statistics, which would place it behind only Canada.
by Alan J. Mccombs
UPI Correspondent
Washington (UPI) Oct 19, 2006
A recent study found that a majority of Americans are convinced China will match or surpass the United States as the pre-eminent economic powerhouse, sparking concerns over what a stronger China means for trade and global politics. The Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey found that 60 percent of Americans feel China will catch up to the United States economically, but they are evenly divided on whether China's economic clout poses a threat.

Some 75 percent of Americans polled believe that an attendant rise in Chinese military power is a greater concern to U.S. interests, with 50 percent saying such a build-up could lead to eventual conflict in Asia.

Despite deep concerns over what a growing China means for the world, Americans seem to favor the carrot over the stick in bilateral diplomacy; 65 percent of Americans said Washington should strive for increased cooperation with Beijing.

Experts note that since the Nixon administration, U.S. foreign policy has largely favored engagement with China rather than confrontation.

Economically, the U.S. and Chinese economies have been become more intertwined over the last decade. U.S. imports from China rose from roughly $100 billion to $243 billion in 2005, while U.S. exports to China surged from $16 billion to $42 billion.

China is currently close to supplanting Mexico as the United States' second-largest trading partner, according to government census statistics, which would place it behind only Canada.

Experts argue the manner Washington chooses to deal with China may be the most important foreign policy issue of this century.

"Since the U.S. has been a world power, we have never had a situation where we're dealing with a country that is a potential economic and geopolitical rival," said David Tarullo, professor of law at Georgetown University and President Clinton's deputy assistant for economic policy.

Other experts note the bulk of market reforms seem to be behind the communist state.

"In many ways, this is the last chapter in the reform movement," said Pieter Bottelier, professor of China studies at Johns Hopkins University.

The banking sector in China remains one of the last major sections of the Chinese economy in need of major reform, according to experts. Over the last thirty years, starting with agricultural reforms, China has overhauled its once centralized economy with a boon of international and targeted domestic investments.

These efforts, they say, have made China the fastest growing economy over the last decade. Today the country is the world's fourth-largest economy and third-largest trader.

But despite China's extraordinary economic progress, economic indicators can be misleading, said Yang Yanqing, assistant editor-in-chief of China Business News. While gross domestic product is commonly used by economists to measure the economic strength of a country, rapid GDP growth does not necessarily translate to meaningful improvements in the average citizen's life.

"If you look at the GDP, China will be a very big one, but if you look at China by GDP per capita, China is just around the lower-middle income group of countries," Yanqing said.

Ten percent of the Chinese population currently falls below the poverty line, and the average income is $6,800, according to U.S. government statistics.

Additionally, China will have to deal with a host of domestic problems as its economy charges forward, including concerns over environmental degradation from a largely unregulated manufacturing sector and vast disparities in living standards.

Experts say that viewing China as a partner rather than a rival or foe may be the best way to ensure a peaceful future.

The last time a dominant economic and geopolitical power was confronted with the rise of a rival was when Germany rose to challenge Britain prior to World War I, Tarullo noted.

"Our goal as a country should be to avoid the end of that conflict and learn to share the stage," Tarullo said.

Source: United Press International

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