US corridor boosts oil flow out of Hormuz: AFP analysis

The creation of a US-secured corridor in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly boosted the flow of oil through the strategic waterway, an AFP analysis of industry data showed.

US President Donald Trump said in mid-August that a "tremendous amount of oil" was being shipped out of the vital waterway, although data from shipping trackers Kpler and Lloyd's List Intelligence show that volumes are still around half the levels seen before the war.

- Oil volumes rise sharply -

White House officials also told Axios that the US has controlled the corridor hugging the Omani coast since around mid-June, when a peace memo was agreed.

The US military has escorted convoys of vessels since fighting resumed on July 8 and Iran once again threatened to attack ships using the route.

Approximately 330 million barrels of oil aboard vessels assessed by AFP, using Lloyd's criteria, as not linked to Iran have exited Hormuz since July 8, equivalent to around 4.9 million bpd.

But that figure rose steadily through August and September, reaching an average of almost 8 million bpd during the seven days to September 7.

More than 14 million barrels were shipped out on September 7 alone.

By comparison, around 18 million bpd crossed during peacetime, 1.4 million bpd during the first phase of the war when restrictions were first imposed, and 9.4 million bpd during talks when restrictions were lifted.

Lloyd's defines a non-Iran-linked transit as one in which a vessel is not travelling to or from an Iranian port, is not owned or flagged in Iran, and is not sanctioned or part of the shadow fleet.

Vessels using the Iranian route out of Hormuz were also excluded from the AFP analysis.

- Data limitations -

Given Iran's threat to target ships not using routes approved by Tehran, vessels almost always turn off their transponders when using the US-backed route across Hormuz, making direct detection difficult.

Lloyd's told AFP that "there is a margin of error" in detection, while Kpler said that "we have relatively high confidence in the aggregate flow" but that not every crossing is detectable in real time.

- Do the US claims add up? -

The administration says the running average is around 9 million bpd -- about one million bpd higher than the peak seven-day average detected by the trackers.

That gap is equivalent to a fully laden very large crude carrier (VLCC) every other day.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that, unlike tracking firms, "we know every ship, what it's carrying ... in these convoys we're pushing."

The government also claimed that nearly 18 million barrels crossed during one 24-hour period, which cannot be ruled out, particularly if a large number of vessels crossed in a concentrated period.

However, the data does not support President Trump's claim, made in a graphic posted on Truth Social, that 18 million bpd represented a new normal.