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Analysis: Can Europe Be A Superpower?

by Mark N. Katz
Washington (UPI) June 20, 2005
Both fearful and resentful of the United States playing the role of the world's "sole superpower," many have expressed the hope the European Union will become a countervailing democratic superpower.

Not only could such an EU curb what are seen as U.S. unilateralism and militarism, it could also spread the sort of peaceful conflict resolution now prevailing in most of Europe to other parts of the world.

Surely this would be better, the advocates of the EU as a countervailing superpower argue, than the Bush administration's "cowboy" approach that has made a mess in Iraq and threatens to make others in Iran, North Korea, and elsewhere.

But the EU, others have pointed out, operates under several constraints that serve to prevent it from becoming a superpower. One is the need to coordinate foreign policy among 25 member states -- something that will not become any easier now that French and Dutch voters have rejected the EU constitution that had provided for a common foreign minister.

Another is Europe's low defense expenditure, compared to the United States, has resulted in it having a limited capacity for military intervention, especially without U.S. assistance.

And perhaps most importantly, there appears to be no political will in the EU to build up its armed forces since the resources for this would have to come at least in part through reducing Europe's highly generous (and popular) social welfare and retirement programs.

It may seem impossible, then, for an EU unwilling to engage in military intervention to become a superpower equal to the United States. But this is not necessarily the case. Indeed, it is possible the EU, despite its unwillingness to use force, could not only equal the United States as a superpower, but even replace it as the hegemonic power most able to shape the international order.

The EU has the potential for doing this because it has an asset neither the United States nor any other country (or group of countries) possesses: the desire on the part of other countries to join it.

We have seen already how much the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have been willing to transform themselves in order to be admitted to the EU. If the EU expressed its willingness to admit any and all countries wishing to join that meet its admission standards, it would unleash an extraordinary demand for political and economic reform throughout the world.

While not all countries would want to join the EU, enough probably would in Asia, Africa, and Latin America to create the world's largest voluntary union (which might be renamed the Global Union, or GU). The larger this union grows, the more that other countries, including the United States, would have to take its wishes into account.

Being willing to admit any and all countries wishing to join that meet its political and economic standards for admission, of course, would be an extraordinary commitment for the EU to undertake. Indeed, many Europeans would oppose such an ambitious project.

There is already tremendous opposition in Europe to admitting poorer neighboring countries such as Turkey and Ukraine into the EU.

Indeed, it is ironic that in France, the country where the desire for the EU to become a countervailing superpower to the United States is strongest, the willingness to expand the EU any further is weakest.

It is not sufficient to want to be a superpower in order for a country (or group of countries) to become one. Up to now, military strength has been one of the most important elements that have allowed a country to play this role. The EU is unique in that it has the possibility to play the role of a superpower without asserting itself militarily.

In order to do this, however, the EU must be willing to assert itself politically through a willingness to admit countries beyond the European heartland. A Europe that is either unwilling to do this or to assert itself militarily is not really serious about becoming a superpower - and should act accordingly.

Mark N Katz is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University.

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